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finland Investing

Nordic equity markets: positioning for a tough economic outlook

The Nordic economic outlook isn’t exactly rosy. Cue layoffs and downbeat growth expectations. Where to invest if you want a little more defense in your financial strategy?

Our bottom-line suggestion is to investigate discount retailers. Maybe Finland’s Tokmanni? If you’re really adventurous start your own company offering budget prices to deal-hungry consumers. Or are you more of a shark? Hold your cash, wait for equity prices to drop, then spend, spend, spend. 

How long will the party go on? 

Since the great recession in 2008-2009, we have witnessed a 10-year “bull run” in stock markets, especially in the United States. Other countries have witnessed similar results. Never before in the history of stock investing have we seen such a long period without a recession. Only one other bull market has lasted longer than seven straight years, and it was the bull run after WW2

(In this article, we are taking a look into the current economic situation and thinking about future decisions when it comes to retail investing.) 

So how long will the party continue? 

This is the million dollar question that no one really knows. Looking at the current equity prices (such as OMX Nordic 40 or the S&P 500), it can be tempting for individual investors to sell at least some of their shares, taking profits while they’re still there. However, by not holding  investments, or selling too early, investors can also lose some big gains that might just come to their portfolios. There is always risks and rewards, and everyone acts according to their own investing strategy.

In the past 10 years, US stocks have performed better than Nordic European stocks.

Economic growth is likely going to slow down

We have witnessed steady economic growth globally in the 2010s. Finland struggled quite badly after the great recession and the following European debt crisis. However, since 2015 the Finnish economy has recovered. According to Statistics Finland, Finnish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown for four consecutive years, although the growth is expected to slow.

The Bank of Finland Forecast for Finnish GDP Growth:

  • 2019: 1.6%
  • 2020: 1.5%
  • 2021: 1.3%

It is always hard to predict the future, especially when there are so many uncertainties and factors that determine the global economy trend. As a small fish in the sea, the Finnish economy is prone to various global economic threats and risks. Finns have always relied on their export sectors which is also the reason why the Finnish economy goes hand in hand, up or down, with the global economy.

So want to know how the Finnish economy is going to do? Look at global economic outlook.

Whats should intelligent investors do?

Many of us are thinking ‘what should we do in this new situation’: equity prices are at all-time highs, everyone is talking about the next recession, but still there are not too many attractive investment options for stocks and real estate.

How can intelligent investors invest their money and equities in this kind of a situation?

It all comes down to personal preferences, investing strategy, risk-tolerance, life situation etc. Some things that every investor should consider…

Are you investing long-term or do you need the money in a few years ?

  • The sooner you need your money, the more risk you have if you invest in stocks. Stock market in general have always been a good option for long-term holders, but only those with enough time.

What kind of stocks do you have in your portfolio?

  • During tough economic times, investors should look for companies that thrive or at least survive recessions better than other companies. For example, discount retailers such as Wal-Mart or Tokmanni in Finland might be good options if a recession hits.

Should you allocate your investments into other asset classes?

  • To reduce risk in an investment portfolio, one should invest in different asset classes. Investing in precious metals, such as gold, or just having cash, might be a good option if stock prices drop. Gold price and stock prices have no or very weak correlation which is good for asset allocation. Building up a cash buffer might be a good idea during these times, because when the recession hits, equities are on sale!

Joonas Saloranta covers Northern Europe investing, macroeconomics and more at the Financial Nordic blog.

Categories
finland Investing

Europe is the pioneer in global P2P-lending & Finland is dominating the Nordic markets

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending or crowdlending/-funding is a new way of borrowing and lending money without any middleman. P2P-platforms operating online connect those who need the money with those who are ready to lend money. No bank is needed in this process. 

Borrowers can be either individuals or companies, and there can be tens or even hundreds of individual lenders contributing to one single loan. Crowdfunding is easier to get than traditional bank loans, which makes it an easy option for startups. P2P-lending is also more flexible, less time-consuming and often a cheaper alternative compared to traditional business loans that banks are offering. 

P2P-lending has become very popular in recent years

The first online P2P-lending platform, the UK’s Zopa, was launched in 2004. However, P2P-lending did not become mainstream investment option until few years ago. As we can see from the graph below, crowdlending has grown steadily during the last 5 years in Finland. At a global scale, P2P-lending did not achieve (early) mainstream adoption until in the 2010s. 

P2P-lending in Europe 

Europe is one of the pioneers in the P2P-sector. The first P2P-platform was launched in UK, which has been the market leader in Europe ever since. In 2017, the UK represented 68% of the overall market volume. In Continental Europe, France and Germany were the two biggest players in P2P lending space. As a small country with a population of only 5.5 million, Finland was doing relatively well compared to the bigger European countries.  

Baltic countries, especially Latvia are growing fast in the European P2P-lending scene: their favourable regulation  and entrepreneurial mindset has produced some decent results.  However, most of the investments in Baltic P2P-platforms come from international investors and loans

In general, there are many platforms in European P2P-markets to choose from. Mintos, a Latvian P2P-platform is the largest and most popular P2P-lending platform in Europe and it’s growing fast. 

P2P-lending in Finland growing

In 2019, there are 4 different P2P-platforms that are operating from Finland: Bondora, Fixura, Fellow Finance and Fundedbyme. Fellow finance provides consumer loans also in Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Poland being the leading P2P-platform in Nordic countries

According to P2PMarketData, Finland was the leading Nordic country in P2P-crowdfunding in 2017. Sweden was pretty close, but Denmark and Norway were far away. When it comes to geographical regions, the Nordics beat Benelux countries, Italy, Baltic countries and other big regions in volume. Rankings have probably changed after 2017, but this gives an idea about the P2P-lending scene in Europe. 

In Finland, P2P-lending has become a popular way to borrow and lend money. According to Finlands Bank, in total of 150,1 million Euros was borrowed in P2P consumer loans in 2018. The number was 40 % higher than year before that (2017), so the growth of P2P consumer loans has been quite strong. 

However, borrowing money via P2P consumer loans is not that popular among Finnish families; P2P consumer loans cover only 1% of the total household consumer credit.

Joonas Saloranta covers Northern Europe investing, macroeconomics and more at the Financial Nordic blog.